Federal Register: December 31, 2008 (Volume 73, Number 251)
DOCID: fr31de08-22 FR Doc E8-30778
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
CFR Citation: 50 CFR Part 660
Docket ID: [Docket No. 0809121213-81246-01]
RIN ID: RIN 0648-AX24
NOTICE: Part II
DOCID: fr31de08-22
DOCUMENT ACTION: Proposed rule; request for comments.
SUBJECT CATEGORY:
Magnuson-Stevens Act Provisions; Fisheries Off West Coast States; Pacific Coast Groundfish Fishery; 2009-2010 Biennial Specifications and Management Measures
DATES: Comments on this proposed rule must be received no later than 5 p.m., local time on January 30, 2009.
DOCUMENT SUMMARY:
NMFS proposes a rule to set the 2009-2010 harvest specifications and management measures for groundfish taken in the U.S. exclusive economic zone (EEZ) off the coasts of Washington, Oregon, and California and to revise rebuilding plans for four of the seven overfished rockfish species, consistent with the MangunsonStevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act and the Pacific Coast Groundfish Fishery Management Plan. Together, the revisions to rebuilding plans and the 20072008 harvest specifications and management measures are intended to rebuild overfished stocks as soon as possible, taking into account the status and biology of the stocks, the needs of fishing communities, and the interaction of the overfished stocks within the marine environment.
SUMMARY:
Commerce Department, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
Electronic Access
This proposed rule is accessible via the Internet at the Office of the Federal Register's Web site at http://www.gpoaccess.gov/fr/ index.html. Background information and documents are available at the Pacific Fishery Management Council's Web site at http:// www.pcouncil.org/.
Background
The amount of each Pacific Coast groundfish species or species group that is available for harvest in a specific year is referred to as a harvest specification. Harvest specifications include acceptable biological catches (ABCs), optimum yields (OYs), and harvest guidelines (HGs). Harvest specifications may also include ``setasides'' of harvestable amounts of fish.
The ABC is a biologically based estimate of the amount of fish that may be harvested each year without affecting the sustainability of the resource. The ABC may be modified with precautionary adjustments to account for uncertainty. An OY is a target harvest level for a species or species groups. The OYs may be set equal to the ABC for the species or species group, but are often set lower as a precautionary measure. The Council's policies on setting ABCs, OYs, and other harvest specifications are discussed later in the preamble to this proposed rule. Proposed harvest specifications for 20092010 are provided in Tables 1a through 2c.
Management measures being proposed for 20092010 work in combination with the existing regulations to create a management structure that is intended to constrain fishing so the catch of overfished groundfish species does not exceed the rebuildingbased OYs while allowing, to the extent practicable, the OYs for healthier groundfish stocks that cooccur with the overfished stocks to be achieved. In order to rebuild overfished species, allowable harvest levels of healthy species will only be achieved where such harvest will not deter rebuilding of overfished stocks. Routine management measures for the commercial fisheries include: Bycatch limits, trip and cumulative landing limits, time/area closures, size limits, and gear restrictions. Routine management measures for the recreational fisheries include bag limits, size limits, gear restrictions, fish dressing requirements, and time/area closures. Routine management measures are used to modify fishing behavior during the fishing year to allow a harvest specification to be achieved, or to prevent a harvest specification from being exceeded. The groundfish fishery is managed with a variety of other regulatory requirements that are not considered routine, and which are outside of this rulemaking and found at 50 CFR 660, subpart G. The regulations at 50 CFR 660, subpart G include, but are not limited to: Longterm harvest allocations; recordkeeping and reporting requirements; monitoring requirements; license limitation programs; and essential fish habitat (EFH) protection measures. Together the routine management measures and regulations at 50 CFR 660, subpart G are used to manage the Pacific Coast groundfish fishery to stay within the harvest specifications identified in the rulemaking.
The Pacific Coast Groundfish Fishery Management Plan (FMP) requires the Council to set harvest specifications and management measures for groundfish at least biennially. This proposed rule would set 20092010 harvest specifications and management measures for all of the 90 plus groundfish species or species groups managed under the Pacific Coast Groundfish FMP, except for Pacific whiting. Pacific whiting harvest specifications are proposed as a range in this action. The Council will consider final Pacific whiting specifications after new stock assessments are prepared at the beginning of each year. The final specifications for 2009 and 2010 will be announced following the March 2009 and March 2010 Council meetings, respectively.
There are seven Pacific Coast groundfish species that are currently
being managed under rebuilding plans established in Amendment 164 to
the FMP. Amendment 164 was developed and approved to respond to the
decision in Natural Resources Defense Council v. NMFS, 421 F.3d 872
(9th Cir. 2005) [hereinafter NRDC v. NMFS]. The overfished species are:
Bocaccio, canary rockfish, cowcod, darkblotched rockfish, Pacific Ocean Perch (POP), widow rockfish, and yelloweye rockfish.
[[Page 80517]]
This action proposes to revise rebuilding plans for four of the seven
overfished groundfish species (canary rockfish, darkblotched rockfish,
cowcod, and yelloweye rockfish), consistent with the approach taken in
Amendment 164, by revising target rebuilding dates and/or harvest rates specified in Federal regulations at 50 CFR 660.365.
The focus of the preamble discussion is the Council's ABC and OY policies for 2009 and 2010, new harvest specifications, new fishery specific management measures, and other issues related to the management of the Pacific Coast groundfish fishery in 2009 and 2010. Preambles to prior proposed rules have more thoroughly discussed bycatch accounting and reduction measures (See 67 FR 1555, January 11, 2002; 68 FR 936, January 7, 2003; 69 FR 1380, January 8, 2004; 69 FR 56563, September 21, 2004 for historical information on the bycatch model). On June 27, 2006, NMFS published a proposed rule to implement Amendment 18 to the FMP on bycatch mitigation (71 FR 36506.) The preamble to the Amendment 18 proposed rule discussed NMFS and Council bycatch accounting and mitigation policies, programs, and regulations. The preamble for the 2007 and 2008 harvest specifications and management measures fully described a new approach to overfished species management that was taken by NMFS, the Council, and state and tribal partners in light of NRDC v. NMFS (71 FR 57764, September 29, 2006). The same approach has been followed in this rulemaking. Issues that were thoroughly discussed in previous rulemakings will only be briefly discussed in this preamble as they pertain to 20092010 fisheries. On December 2005, NMFS published a final EIS on the designation of groundfish EFH and minimization of adverse fishing effects on EFH. (http://www.nwr.noaa.gov/GroundfishHalibut/Groundfish FisheryManagement/NEPADocuments/EFH/FinalEIS.cfm). The final EFH EIS provides information on the interactions of groundfish species with their physical environment. Amendment 164 and the 20072008 groundfish specifications and management measures expand upon the EFH EIS's analysis to analyze the interactions of groundfish species with each other and with other marine species within the California Current ecosystem.
Consistent with the FMP, the socioeconomic effects of this action on communities were analyzed to provide guidance on the effects of the action on fishing communities. Fishing communities need a sustainable fishery that is safe, well managed, and profitable, that provides jobs and incomes, that contributes to the local social fabric, culture, and image of the community, and helps market the community and its services and products. In its 20072008 recommendations for overfished species rebuilding plans and groundfish specifications and management measures, the Council was clear that it did not expect fishing community needs could be met. The Council took the needs of communities into account as it analyzed different rebuilding plans and management measures alternatives. As a result, the rebuilding plans, groundfish specifications and management measures recommended by the Council and adopted for 20072008 were expected to allow fishing businesses and communities to operate at a level that would provide for the continued existence of those fishing businesses and communities and would only allow opportunities for economic growth or profit if they were consistent with the adopted rebuilding policies. In many instances the harvests of healthy stocks were curtailed by the projected effects on overfished species. The Council used this same approach in the development of the 2009 and 2010 specifications and management measures.
Further discussion on how the needs of fishing communities were taken into account can be found in the preamble to the proposed rule for the 20072008 specifications and management measures (71 FR 57765, September 29, 2006). The supporting DEIS for this action assesses, through the analysis of several rebuilding alternatives, the needs of groundfish fishing communities, the dependence of fishing communities on overfished species, and the vulnerability of fishing communities to further nearterm reductions in groundfish harvest.
Management Measure Approach
In considering the effects of the action on fishing communities, the effects of inseason fishery management changes on fishing communities were considered. At the start of each biennial management cycle, NMFS and the Council establish fishery management measures that are expected to allow fishers to harvest as much of the healthy species OYs as possible without exceeding allowable harvest levels for co occurring overfished species. These management measures are set using the best scientific information available at the time. However, as catch data and new scientific information may become available during the fishing year, NMFS and the Council's knowledge may change. Catch data vary in quality and abundance both before and during the season, and catch of the most constraining overfished species may also occur in fisheries not managed under the Pacific Coast groundfish FMP. Managing a coastwide fishery to ensure that OYs of overfished species are not exceeded is particularly difficult because of the low OY levels. If new information received during the season reveals that landings are occurring at a faster pace than were initially anticipated, management action would be needed to keep the harvest of healthy stocks and the incidental catch of overfished species at or below their specified OYs. If these inseason adjustments to management measures are dramatic, such as an early closure of a fishery, then the effects of management actions on the fishing communities can be severe.
To prevent major inseason fluctuations in available harvest, the 20092010 harvest levels account for uncertainty in order to minimize the potential need for dramatic inseason measures. In other words, currently available scientific information is used to design management measures that are projected to result in overfished species harvest levels that are somewhat lower than their OYs. This practice provides a buffer to account for both scientific uncertainty and unexpected occurrences. In general, a buffer helps prevent OYs from being exceeded. Even with these safeguards, information that becomes available during the 20092010 fishing year may reveal that previously set management measures need to be revised inseason. If that is the case, management measures will be appropriately adjusted inseason to keep harvest from exceeding OYs.
Specification and Management Measure Development Process
The process for setting biennial specifications begins with stock
assessments to evaluate the status of the groundfish stocks or stock
complexes. After being prepared by a stock assessment scientist, each
stock assessment is reviewed by the Council's stock assessment review
(STAR) team as well as the Council's Scientific and Statistical
Committee (SSC). The SSC reviews the stock assessments and provides
guidance to the Council relative to the stock assessment's suitability
for use in groundfish fishery management decision making. The SSC also
endorses the assessments and identifies if they are the ``best available science'' on the stock's status. During
[[Page 80518]]
the review process for the 20092010 stock assessments, the SSC
indicated that the current stock assessments were more thorough and of
a higher quality than those used in the previous management cycles. At
its June, September and November 2007 meetings, the Council reviewed
the new stock assessments, stock assessment updates and rebuilding
analyses, and made recommendations regarding the use of the various
stock assessments for setting the 20092010 specifications. No new
species were identified as overfished or approaching an overfished condition.
At its November 2007 meeting, the Council adopted initial fishery specifications based on the new assessments and rebuilding analyses. These recommendations included preliminary ABCs and ranges of OYs for most groundfish species, and where possible, preferred OYs. As a result of the new stock assessments, the SSC recommended that the Council consider revisions to three overfished species rebuilding plans: Canary rockfish; darkblotched rockfish; and cowcod. At this same meeting, the Council provided a variety of potential management measures to be considered for the 20092010 fisheries. Over winter, the Council's advisory bodies met to discuss and analyze the Council's preliminary fishery specifications and potential management measures based on the initial specifications.
At its April 2008 meeting, the Council identified its preferred
final 2009 and 2010 ABCs for all groundfish species and species
complexes; identified preliminary preferred OYs for most managed
groundfish species and species complexes; adopted revised rebuilding
plans for canary rockfish, cowcod, and darkblotched rockfish; and
recommended a range of 20092010 groundfish management measure
alternatives for analysis that were designed to keep catch levels
within the final preferred OYs. The newly adopted rebuilding analyses
were used to develop ranges of OY alternatives for canary rockfish,
cowcod, and darkblotched rockfish, while the previously adopted
rebuilding plans were used for the remaining overfished species. For
each individual overfished species a range of OY alternatives was
described by the target year to rebuild (T
Prior to 2007, the Council was provided with analyses on preferred OYs for each overfished species in isolation from other species rather than considering how different overfished species OYs might affect or constrain other overfished species. Beginning with Amendment 164 and the 2007 and 2008 specifications and management measures and continued for 2009 and 2010, individual overfished species OYs were integrated into rebuilding OYs that more explicitly took the interaction of the overfished species within the marine ecosystem into consideration. The interrelated nature of Pacific Coast groundfish stocks makes this consideration necessary. The degree of interaction between overfished species and other stocks is such that ``rebuilding as quickly as possible while taking into account the needs of fishing communities'' is not possible based solely on a speciesbyspecies approach. To consider the needs of the fishing communities and the status and biology of the stocks, the 2009 and 2010 specifications for overfished species were considered in an integrated manner as was done in 2007 and 2008.
To build integrated rebuilding OY alternatives, the individual overfished species OYs were arranged in strategic combinations that could be analyzed to assess how changes in harvest availability of the various overfished species would constrain fishing opportunities by sector, north and south of 40[deg]10' N. lat. (N. lat.), and on the continental shelf and slope. The rebuilding OY alternatives were arranged to show how fishing opportunities may be constrained by sector (or gear type) and region along the West Coast, depending on the amount of allowable harvest of each species. By adopting a suite of OYs for overfished species in April 2008, the Council was provided the opportunity to take a realistic look at minimal harvest levels that would rebuild as quickly as possible taking into account the status and biology of the stocks and extractive scientific take of overfished stocks. The rebuilding OY ranges recommended by the Council at its April 2008 meeting provided a starting point for more detailed analysis which was presented to the Council at its June 2008 meeting. Final recommendations on the rebuilding OYs and the management measures needed to keep fishery harvests within the OYs were presented at the Council's June 2008 meeting. The rebuilding alternatives that were considered and Council recommendations are further discussed in the OY Policies and Rebuilding Parameters for Overfished Species section of this preamble.
In summary, when making its final recommendations for rebuilding optimum yields (OYs) for 20092010, the Council took into account the status and biology of the stocks by looking for the shortest possible rebuilding periods within a suite of management measures that provided the greatest reduction in catch of the most sensitive and lowest productivity species. The Council took the needs of fishing communities into account by providing fishing opportunities where such opportunities would have a minimal effect on rebuilding periods for stocks with higher productivity, and by recommending restrictive management measures focused on stocks with the lowest productivity levels.
ABC Policy
The Council develops annual estimates of the ABC for major groundfish stocks. When setting the 2009 and 2010 ABCs, three categories of species were identified. The first were those species for which quantitative stock assessments can be conducted because there is adequate data. Stock assessments (a biological evaluation of the condition of a stock or stock complex) are used to estimate the population status of each assessed stock relative to its unfished biomass level. Stock assessments were used to estimate the current level of the abundance, changes in abundance over time, depletion levels relative to an unfished state, fishing mortality, mortality from other causes, and how changes in harvest levels are likely to affect the stock's abundance. The second category included species for which some biological indicators are available, but are not sufficient to support a quantitative analysis. The third category included minor species which are caught, but where the only available information is on the landed biomass.
For 2009 and 2010, the Council maintained a policy of using a
default harvest rate as a proxy for the fishing mortality rate that is
expected to achieve the maximum sustainable yield (F
[[Page 80519]]
proxies, based on the Council's SSC recommendations, were used:
F
A rate of F
For some groundfish species, there is little or no detailed biological data available on which to base ABCs, and therefore only rudimentary stock assessments have been prepared; for other species, no stock assessments have been prepared and the ABC levels were based on historical landings. Since 2000, the Council has applied a more precautionary policy when setting ABCs for species with only rudimentary or no stock assessments. The ABC policy prior to 2000 had been to assume that fishing mortality was equal to natural mortality (F=M); the current policy is to assume that fishing mortality is 75 percent of natural mortality (F=0.75M).
20092010 Groundfish ABCs
A biennial management cycle for setting harvest specifications and management measures was implemented in 2004 and biennial specification were first established for the 2005 and 2006 management cycle. During the first year in a biennial cycle, new stock assessments are prepared and the results of the new assessments are reviewed by the Council and adopted for use. In some cases, a stock assessment needs to be refined and the final assessment may not be reviewed by the Council and adopted for use until later in the first year or early in the second year of the biennial cycle.
To estimate stock abundance and population trends, each stock assessment relies on various types and sources of information with the principal information coming from the commercial and recreational fisheries themselves. For example, basic fishery dependent data for stock assessments includes the amount of fish caught, the individual sizes of the fish and their biological characteristics (e.g., age, maturity, sex), and the ratio of fish caught to the time spent fishing (catchperunitofeffort). In addition to fishery dependent data, fishery independent data for stock assessments are collected during scientific research surveys. In addition, Pacific Coast groundfish stock assessments identify areas of uncertainty and modeling difficulties. When data are lacking for a particular species, it can result in uncertainty and modeling problems for the stock assessment scientists.
In preparation for setting new ABC values for 2009 and 2010, 15
stock assessments were prepared. Full stock assessments, those that
consider the appropriateness of the assessment model and that revise
the model as necessary, were prepared for the following stocks:
Sablefish; longnose skate; cowcod south of 36[deg]00[min] N. lat.
(Conception area); blue rockfish south of 42[deg]00[min] N. lat.; black
rockfish north of Cape Falcon (46[deg]16[min] N. lat.); black rockfish
south of 46[deg]16[min] N. lat.; canary rockfish; chilipepper rockfish off California and Oregon; darkblotched rockfish north of
36[deg]00[min] N. lat.; and arrowtooth flounder. Stock assessment
updates, those that run new data through an existing model without
changing the model, were prepared for: English sole; widow rockfish;
bocaccio south of 40[deg]30[min] N. lat. (Cape Mendocino); POP north of
40[deg]30[min] N. lat.; and yelloweye. In addition to the 15 stock
assessments, an academic exercise was conducted that investigated
fluctuations in the shortbelly rockfish biomass through the use of a
population model based on standard methodology and a variety of both traditional and untraditional data.
Each new stock assessment includes a base model which is accepted
by the reviewers. Because it is essential that uncertainty in the
analysis be captured and transmitted to decision makers, alternative
models are developed from the base model by bracketing the dominant
dimension of uncertainty (e.g., stockrecruitment steepness or
R
Species that had ABCs in 2007 and 2008 continue to have ABCs in 2009 and 2010. Blue rockfish and longnose skate had been part of species complexes because they were less rigorously assessed. These two stocks have now had more quantitative stock assessments prepared. As a result of the new assessment, longnose skate is being removed from the other species complex and assigned species specific ABC values for the 2009 and 2010 management cycle. However, blue rockfish will remain within the minor rockfish species group and its ABC contribution will revise the ABC values specified for the complex.
For species that did not have new stock assessments prepared, the Council considered a single ABC derived from the base model of the most recent stock assessment or continued to use the results of rudimentary stock assessments, or the historical landings data. Species or species complexes without new stock assessments include: Lingcod; Pacific cod; cabezon; Dover sole; petrale sole; starry flounder; splitnose rockfish; yellowtail; shortspine thornyhead; longspine thornyhead; California scorpionfish; minor rockfish north of 40[deg]10[min] N. lat. minor rockfish south of 40[deg]10[min] N. lat.; ``other flatfish; and ``other fish''. Specific information on species without any new stock assessment information are provided in the footnotes to Table 1a and Table 2a in the proposed regulations. The stock assessment cycle and the process for adoption of a final ABC for Pacific whiting are detailed below.
Species that are not overfished and had new stock assessments or
stock assessment updates prepared and adopted for use in setting
harvest specifications by the Council include: Sablefish; arrowtooth
flounder; English sole; chilipepper rockfish; black rockfish north of
46[deg]16[min] N. lat. (Cape Falcon); black Rockfish south of 46[deg]16[min] N. lat.; longnose skate; and blue
[[Page 80520]]
rockfish. Specific information on the ABCs for species that are not
overfished and have new stock assessments or assessment updates are provided in the footnotes to Table 1a and Table 2a.
New assessments were prepared for each of the seven overfished species. The following stock assessment summaries pertain to species that have been declared overfished with either new stock assessments or stock assessment updates. In addition, the academic analysis of shortbelly rockfish is summarized in this section.
Bocaccio (Sebastes Paucispinis)
A stock assessment update and a rebuilding analysis were prepared in 2007 for the bocaccio stock in the southern and central California area (the stock south of Cape Mendocino, CA). The last full assessment for bocaccio rockfish was conducted in 2003 and used the original Stock Synthesis I model. A stock assessment update followed in 2005. Like the 2005 stock assessment update, the new stock assessment update followed the methodology and assumptions of the 2003 bocaccio assessment as closely as possible. Updated information on fishery landings, length compositions, and the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCoFI) juvenile survey were used to update the assessment. Although the three model approaches from the 2003 assessment were included in the update (the three models are further described in the 20042005 proposed rule (69 FR 56550, September 21, 2004)), the STATc model was again considered as the base model and was the focus of the update, with limited consideration given to the STARb1 and STARb2 models.
The results of the stock assessment update indicated that the bocaccio stock biomass has continued to increase. The 1999 year class is still a driving factor, and a larger than average 2003 year class appears to be evident based on updated length composition data from the southern California recreational fishery. The bocaccio stock was estimated to be at 12.7 percent of its unfished biomass in 2007.
The SSC recognized that unresolved problems and major uncertainties
identified in the 2003 assessment still remain, but endorsed the
updated bocaccio stock assessment as being the best available science
for the Council's management recommendations. The bocaccio ABC of 793
metric tons (mt) for 2009 and 2010 was based on the STATc base model with an F
Canary Rockfish (Sebastes Pinniger)
A new coastwide stock assessment was completed in 2007 for canary rockfish. The stock assessment, which used the stock synthesis II model (currently the standard model for west coast groundfish), included a number of major changes to the data and modeling approach. New data used in the model included fishery dependent age structure data from the port and onboard observer sampling programs; and, fishery independent data derived from the NMFS triennial bottom trawl survey, the Northwest Fisheries Science Center's trawl survey relative biomass indices and biological sampling, and the Southwest Fisheries Science Center/Northwest Fisheries Science Center/Pacific Whiting Conservation Cooperative coastwide prerecruit survey. Although the new data were not highly influential, they did address previously identified issues.
In this assessment and in previous assessments, fishery selectivity (the probability that a fish of a certain length or age will be captured by a given gear) was modeled in multiyear time blocks with changes in selectivity allowed between blocks. In the new assessment, the time blocks for fishery selectivity were simplified. In contrast to the previous assessment, where blocks were defined arbitrarily to improve model fit, the current assessment defined selectivity blocks according to major management actions and known changes in fishing practices (e.g., the change to ``highrise'' rockfish trawls in the late 1970s). The new approach was considered to be a more objective and rigorous approach to defining selectivity blocks. The results of the new assessment estimate the canary rockfish spawning biomass to be at 32.4 percent of its unfished biomass in 2007. This is in contrast to the previous assessment which estimated the spawning biomass to be at 9.4 percent in 2005. Fishing mortality rates have been less than 1 percent since 2001, indicating that overfishing has not occurred since then. The rate of increase in the biomass is highly dependent on the level of productivity (the value used to define the stockrecruitment steepness has a major influence on stock productivity estimates). After a period of above average recruitment in the late 1980s and early 1990s, recent stock recruitment has generally been low. The only estimates of higher recruitments were in 1999 and 2001. There is little information other than the prerecruitment index to inform the assessment model about recruitment after 2002. As the larger recruitments from the late 1980s and early 1990s move through the population, the rate at which the biomass increases and the stock recovers may slow. In previous assessments, the stockrecruitment steepness was precisely estimated at a low value. Given the changes in the model structure, the stockrecruitment steepness could not be reliably estimated within the model. Therefore a less precise approach of using a higher valued ``prior'' distribution that was developed from a metaanalysis of U.S. west coast rockfishes was used in the base model.
The SSC endorsed the base model and decision table, which included
``high'' and ``low'' states of nature, as the best available science
for Council decisionmaking. The SSC indicated that the ``low'' and
``high'' states of nature should be considered to be equally likely and
half as likely as the basemodel. The canary rockfish ABC of 937 mt for
2009 and 940 mt for 2010 are derived from the base model with an F
Cowcod (Sebastes levis)
Cowcod in the Conception area was assessed in 2007. The 2007 assessment was originally scheduled to be an update. However, a number of technical issues were raised and it was determined that a full assessment was most appropriate. An agestructured production model was used for the new assessment. The new stock assessment included substantial changes to both data and model structure.
Gear selectivity, which had been misspecified in the 2005 assessment, was corrected and revised. The growth curve for cowcod was reestimated based on corrected data. The commercial and recreational sectors were modeled as separate fisheries. The commercial landings from 1900 to 1968 were revised. The California Commercial Cooperative Groundfish Program (19691985) revised landings estimates were incorporated into the assessment. In addition, significant changes were made to the spatial stratification and the model used to develop the Commercial Passenger Fishing Vessel Logbook indices. The value used for the stockrecruitment steepness was changed.
The estimated depletion of cowcod was strongly affected by the
correction of technical errors. As a result of the model changes, the
cowcod spawning biomass in 2005 was believed to be between 3.8 and 24.4
percent of its unfished spawning biomass with the base model estimating
the stock to be at 4.0 percent of its unfished biomass, rather than
between 14 and 21 percent of its unfished spawning biomass as was [[Page 80521]]
previously estimated in the 2005 assessment. The new assessment
estimated the cowcod spawning biomass to be between 4.1 percent and
27.3 percent of its unfished spawning biomass in 2007, with the base
model estimate being 4.6 percent. The spawning biomass is estimated to
be slowly increasing (by about 0.3 percent per year). An unresolved
problem for the stock assessment was the lack of data on stock
productivity and recent biomass trends. Indications of recent stock
increases are inferred from the model but have not been confirmed by observations.
The SSC endorsed the base model and the decision table based on the
``low'' and ``high'' states of nature for Council decision making. The
cowcod ABC of 13 mt for 2009 and 14 mt for 2010 ABC were based on the
results of the stock assessment which was based on the STATc base model with an F
Darkblotched Rockfish (Sebastes Crameri)
In 2007, a new stock assessment was prepared for darkblotched rockfish in the combined U.S. Vancouver, Columbia, Eureka and Monterey areas. The stock synthesis model II was used for the stock assessment. The SSC indicated that changes to the darkblotched rockfish stock assessment model represented a substantial advancement. Changes to the stock assessment included: New and updated catch data; new and updated discard rate estimates; new data from the Northwest Fishery Science Center slope and shelf trawl surveys; conditional ageatlength data developed using consistent aging criteria; and data from a new generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) that allows the data for the various survey vessels to be combined into a single continuous time series of biomass indices. In addition, a full range of length compositions were used for discarded catch, rather than the average size, of discards. The new assessment eliminated Alaska Fishery Science Center slope trawl survey data from the ``super years'' (consisting of combined data from multiple years of partial coastal coverage), the 1977 triennial shelf survey data, and the POP survey data from 1975 1985. These data were removed because the data were unlikely to produce realistic selectivities and were relatively insignificant given all the other data available.
The new stock assessment estimated the darkbloched rockfish stock to be at 22 percent of its unfished spawning biomass level in 2007. In comparison, the last assessment estimated the darkbloched rockfish stock to be 16 percent of its unfished spawning biomass in 2005. In recent years the stock has been rebuilding, with spawning output having increased by 68 percent over the last five years primarily due to strong 1999 and 2000 yearclasses (fish in a stock born in the same year). The darkblotched rockfish spawning biomass appears to have increased steadily over the past 5 or 6 years. Since 2001, overfishing occurred only once, with estimated catch exceeding the ABC by 14 mt (5.8 percent) in 2004.
The estimates of natural mortality (deaths in a fish stock caused by predation, pollution, senility, etc., but not fishing) were a major source of uncertainty in the stock assessment. The value used for natural mortality was not changed from the previous assessment. However, the decision tables presented in the analysis bracketed alternative states of nature for natural mortality. The largest change in modeling assumptions between the 2005 and 2007 stock assessments was the value of spawnerrecruitment steepness (a parameter that has a major influence on stock productivity). During the review process, a disagreement occurred regarding the use of a fixed parameter at the median value of a ``prior'' distribution developed from a metaanalysis of U.S. west coast rockfishes and an estimate of steepness from within the assessment model using the prior distribution. The SSC recommended using a spawnerrecruitment steepness value estimated within the stock assessment model because it incorporates what appears to be meaningful information from the current stock assessment into the productivity estimate.
The SSC endorsed the darkblotched rockfish stock assessment as the best available science for setting 2009 and 2010 harvest
specifications. The darkblotched rockfish ABC of 437 mt for 2009 and
440 mt for 2010 are derived from the base model with an F
POP (Sebastes alutus)
In 2007, a stock assessment update was prepared for POP (Pacific ocean perch) in the U.S. Vancouver and Columbia areas which used the same model as in the 2003 and 2005 assessments, a forward projection agestructured model. New information used in the stock assessment update included: Updated and new catch data for 20032006; updated and new fishery age composition data from 19992006; recalculated Northwest Fishery Science Center slope survey biomass indices and age compositions for 19992004; and new 2006 Northwest Fishery Science Center slope survey biomass indices and age compositions.
The results of the stock assessment update estimated that the POP spawning biomass was at 27.5 percent of its unfished spawning biomass at the start of 2007. The POP biomass shows an increasing trend with indications of a strong 1999 year class in both the survey and fishery age composition data over several years. Assessment results are highly consistent with the previous assessment, except that a stronger 1999 year class is estimated. The current assessment indicates that the 1999 year class is the strongest since the 1960s.
A number of sources of uncertainty are explicitly included in the
stock assessment. For example, allowance is made for uncertainty in natural mortality, the parameters of the stockrecruitment
relationship, and the survey catchability coefficients. Sensitivity
analyses based upon alternative model structures and data set choices
conducted during the 2003 and 2005 stock assessment process suggest
that the overall uncertainty may be greater than that predicted by a
single model specification. Other sources of uncertainty that are not
included in the current model include: The degree of connection between
the U.S. west coast and Canadian stock; the effect of climatic
variables on recruitment, growth, and survival of POP; gender
differences in growth and survival; a possible nonlinear relationship
between individual spawner biomass and effective spawning output; and a more complicated relationship between age and maturity.
The SSC determined that the Pacific Ocean perch assessment update
complied with the terms of reference for updates and endorsed its use
for Council decisionmaking. The POP ABC of 1,160 mt for 2009 and 1,173
mt for 2010 are derived from the base model with an F
Widow Rockfish (Sebastes Entomelas)
In 2007, a stock assessment update was conducted for widow rockfish in U.S. Vancouver, Columbia, Eureka, Monterey, and Conception areas. The widow rockfish stock in these areas is assumed to be a single mixed stock. The agebased population model used in 2005 was updated with new catch data, age compositions data, and catchperunitofeffort time series data from 2005 and 2006.
Since 2001, the widow rockfish biomass has shown an increasing trend with the results of the new stock
[[Page 80522]]
assessment estimating the spawning biomass to be at 35.5 percent of its
unfished spawning biomass in 2007. This is in contrast to steady
declines in the widow rockfish biomass that occurred between 1977 and
2001. Like the 2005 stock assessment, the stock assessment update shows
that the stock biomass may not have declined below the overfished
species threshold of 25 percent of its unfished spawning biomass, as
was estimated in previous assessments. Fishing mortality rates have
been less than 6 percent since 2001, indicating that overfishing has not occurred since then.
As with the previous stock assessment, a major source of uncertainty within the current stock assessment is the lack of a reliable abundance index (information obtained from samples or observations and used as a measure of the weight or number of fish which make up a stock) for widow rockfish. The primary source of information on trends in abundance of widow rockfish was fishery dependent information derived from the Oregon bottom trawl logbook data. Because the catch rates have been very low due to catch restrictions, no Oregon bottom trawl logbook data after 1999 can be used in the assessment. Based on the recommendation of the 2003 STAR panel, fishery independent data derived from the National Marine Fisheries Service triennial bottom trawl survey were used to develop an additional abundance index. Additional areas of uncertainty include: The estimated value used for natural mortality; estimates of stock recruitment relationships; the use of Santa Cruz juvenile survey data; and the relationship of the Canadian stock to the U.S. stock.
The SSC endorsed the use of the assessment results by the Council
in support of management decisions. The widow rockfish ABC of 7,728 mt
for 2009 and 6,937 mt for 2010 are derived from the base model with an F
Yelloweye Rockfish (Sebastes Ruberrimus)
A stock assessment update was prepared for yelloweye rockfish in 2007 using the stock Synthesis II model. New catch data were added for 2006, based on the Groundfish Management Team's bycatch scorecard. The catch histories for all fleets were updated for the period 19832005.
In the process of updating data for use in the stock assessment update, several errors were identified in the data and input files used for the previous assessment. The errors included: A technical error in the definition of age and length classes, and the inclusion of Washington trawlcaught age compositions included in the age composition inputs for the Washington hookandline fishery. These problems were corrected in developing the 2007 base model. In addition, the natural mortality rate was revised upwards. The changes to the stock assessment model led to downward revisions in the amount of spawning biomass and the level of depletion, relative to the 2006 assessment.
The longterm biomass trajectory from the new stock assessment is very similar to that in the 2006 assessment. Spawning biomass declined steadily and rather rapidly, beginning in the early1970s, with no indication of increase until roughly 2001. The amount of spawning biomass in all years is lower in the current base model than in the previous assessment, due to the correction of data/input errors discussed above. As a result of the new assessment, yelloweye rockfish was estimated to be at 14.5 percent of its unfished spawning biomass in 2007.
As in the previous assessments, the sparseness of the size and age composition data and the lack of a relevant fisheryindependent survey has limited the ability to assess the status of the yelloweye rockfish resource. Further, due to catch restrictions since 2002, catchper uniteffort data no longer reflect the real changes in population abundance, and discard estimates are highly uncertain. The current version of Stock Synthesis II model does not allow for the considerable uncertainty in estimated landings. This makes it difficult to evaluate the true uncertainty of model results. Internal estimates of standard error on depletion estimates were on the order of 22.5 percent and are likely to underestimate uncertainty.
Overall, the update is consistent with the previous assessment and
the SSC endorsed the update model with the revised natural mortality
rate for use in status determination and management of the stock. The
yelloweye rockfish ABC of 31 mt for 2009 and 32 mt for 2010 are derived
from the base model with an F
To understand the potential environmental determinants of fluctuations in the recruitment and abundance of an unexploited rockfish population in the California Current ecosystem, an academic assessment was conducted for shortbelly rockfish in 2007. The analysis, which was conducted by NMFS outside the Council process, was peer reviewed using a structure similar to the Council's stock assessment review process (external reviewers, including a Center for Independent Experts reviewer) and using the Council's terms of reference for groundfish stock assessments. Although the assessment does not fully satisfy the Council's terms of reference for groundfish stock assessments, the SSC indicated that it represented improved knowledge about shortbelly rockfish and might be suitable for management purposes in place of the previously used inferences from the hydroacoustic surveys conducted during 1977 and 1980. The SSC also noted that the assessment of shortbelly rockfish does improve knowledge about one of the noncommercial species included in the Pacific Coast Groundfish FMP and hence provides information relevant to further understanding the ecosystem impacts on the fish populations managed by the Council, as well as the implications of the choice between static and dynamic unfished biomass. The shortbelly rockfish ABC of 6,950 mt for 2009 and 2010 is 50 percent of the status quo ABC. Given the results of the academic assessment, an ABC of 6,950 mt is an amount at which the stock is projected to remain in a state of equilibrium.
OYSetting Policies
The Council recommends annual harvest levels, which are OYs, for the species or species groups that it manages. The MagnusonStevens Act requires the FMP to prevent overfishing while achieving, on a continuing basis, the OY from each fishery. Overfishing is defined in the National Standard Guidelines (50 CFR part 600, subpart D) as exceeding the fishing mortality rate (F) needed to produce MSY on a continuing basis.
A biennial management cycle, adopted under Amendment 17 to the FMP,
is being used to establish the 2009 and 2010 harvest specifications and
management measures. At the beginning of the biennial management cycle,
two oneyear ABCs and OYs will be adopted for each species or species
complex the Council proposes to manage. The annual OYs will be applied
in the same manner as has been done in previous years. If an OY is not
achieved or is exceeded in the first year, the underage or overage will
not be transferred to the following year, as such a transfer could
result in too much fishing or other management problems in the second
year. Overages or underages are accounted for in subsequent stock assessments, which are populated with
[[Page 80523]]
historical total catch and other relevant data.
The 2009 and 2010 OYs for species other than those managed with overfished species rebuilding plans are set at levels that are expected to prevent overfishing, equal to or less than their ABCs. For overfished species, the OYs are set at levels that allow the overfished species to rebuild as quickly as possible, taking into account the status and biology of the stock, the needs of fishing communities, and the interaction of the stock within the marine ecosystem. The specific OYs being adopted for overfished species are described below in ``OY Policies and Rebuilding Parameters for Overfished Species.''
The ``4010'' harvest policy is used to set OYs for species that
are not managed under overfished species rebuilding plans. The 4010
harvest policy is designed to prevent stocks from becoming overfished.
If a stock's spawning biomass is larger than the biomass needed to
produce MSY (B
B
After considering appropriate analysis, the Council may recommend
setting the OY higher than what the default OY harvest policy specifies
as long as the OY does not exceed the ABC (which is set at
F
If a stock falls below 25 percent of its unfished spawning biomass
(B
2009 and 2010 OYs for Healthy and Precautionary Zone Species
Species that had OYs in 2007 and 2008 continue to have OYs in 2009 and 2010. As stated above, the FMP provides guidance on setting harvest specifications based on a stock's estimated biomass level. For each species or species group where there was no new stock assessment or for those species where the FMP provided clear guidance on the harvest strategy, the Council considered a single combination of ABC/OY harvest levels for 2009 and 2010. These species included: Pacific cod; splitnose rockfish south; yellowtail rockfish north; shortspine thornyhead; longspine thornyhead; black rockfish north; Dover sole; petrale sole; starry flounder; English sole; and other flatfish. The Council recommended final adoption of the ABC/OYs values for these species at its April 2008 meeting. Further information on the OYs for these species can be found in the footnotes to Table 1a. and Table 2a. The Council considered alternative OYs for the following nonoverfished species: Lingcod south of 42[deg] N. lat.; sablefish; shortbelly rockfish; chilipepper rockfish; black rockfish south of 42[deg] N. lat.; minor rockfish north and south of 40[deg]10' N. lat.; California scorpionfish; cabezon; arrowtooth flounder; longnose skate (a species within the other fish complex); and Pacific whiting.
Lingcod
The latest lingcod stock assessment was prepared in 2005 and estimated the coastwide stock to be above 40 percent of unfished spawning biomass. Lingcod is therefore considered to be a healthy stock. When a stock is above 40 percent of its unfished spawning biomass, the FMP harvest policy allows the OY to be set equal to the ABC. Under Alternative 1, coastwide OYs of 5,205 mt in 2009 and 4,785 in 2010 were derived by combining the 612 mt southern area (south of 43[deg] N. lat.) status quo OY with the northern area (north of 43[deg] N. lat.) OYs of 4,593 mt in 2009 and 4,173 mt in 2010. The northern area OYs were derived from the 2005 assessment for the northern substock with the OYs set equal to the ABCs. The southern area status quo OY of 612 mt was the 2006 OY which had been used in 2007 and 2008 as a precautionary measure to allow the southern portion of the stock to continue to increase in biomass. The Council recommended OY is OY Alternative 2 (5,278 mt in 2009 and 4,829 mt in 2010) which is based on the 2005 assessment with the coastwide OY that was set equal to the ABC. The Council recommended the coastwide OY under Alternative 2 as lingcod is considered to be a healthy stock coastwide.
Sablefish
Under the Pacific coast groundfish FMP, sablefish is considered to be a precautionary zone stock because the most recent stock assessment estimated the stock to be at 38.3 percent of its unfished biomass coastwide. At its April 2008 meeting, the Council considered three alternative approaches for setting coastwide, northern and southern subarea (north and south of 36[deg] N. lat.) OYs for sablefish. Sablefish allocations are defined by the FMP and apply to the subareas north and south of 36[deg] N. lat. Therefore, the coastwide OY is proportioned to the subareas and used to define the subarea OYs.
At its April 2008 meeting the Council considered three OY
alternatives for sablefish. Alternative 1 was based on the ABC from the
2007 sablefish stock assessment base model with the application of the
4010 harvest policy which resulted in a coastwide OY of 9,795 mt in
2009 (9,452 mt north of 36[deg] N. lat., and 343 mt south of 36[deg] N.
lat.) and 8,988 mt in 2010 (8,673 mt north of 36[deg] N. lat. and 315
mt south of 36[deg] N. lat.) Apportionment of the OY to the northern
and southern subareas was done by applying the average proportion of
20002001 landings of sablefish north of 36[deg] N. lat. (96.5 percent) and south
[[Page 80524]]
of 36[deg] N. lat. (3.5 percent) to the coastwide OY value. Alternative
2 was based on the ABC from the 2007 sablefish stock assessment base
model with the application of the 4010 harvest policy. The coastwide
projected yield from the 2007 assessment was apportioned to the area
north of 36[deg] N. lat. (72 percent) and the Conception area south of
36[deg] N. lat. (28 percent) using the average 20032006 proportions
estimated from the Northwest Fishery Science Center's shelfslope trawl
survey. The Conception area OY was then adjusted to 50 percent to
account for greater assessment and survey uncertainty south of 36[deg]
N. lat. To derive the coastwide OYs, the northern and southern area OYs
were summed. The resulting coastwide OYs were 8,423 mt in 2009 (7,052
mt north of 36[deg] N. lat., and 1,371 mt south of 36[deg] N. lat.) and
7,729 mt in 2010 (6,471 mt north of 36[deg] N. lat. and 1,258 mt south
of 36[deg] N. lat.) The third OY alternative considered by the Council
(Alternative 3) was based on the ABC from the 2007 sablefish stock
assessment's low abundance model with the application of the 4010
harvest policy. The subarea apportionment methodology used to derive OY
Alternative 2 specifications was used under Alternative 3. The
resulting coastwide OY for 2009 was 6,250 mt (5,233 mt north of 36[deg]
N. lat., and 1,018 mt south of 36[deg] N. lat.) and for 2010 it was
5,777 mt (4,837 mt north of 36[deg] N. lat., and 941 mt south of 36[deg] N. lat.)
The Council recommended that the coastwide and northern and southern subarea OY under Alternative 2 be adopted. The precautionary reduction in the southern OY results in a large OY for the Conception Area relative to recent catches. The Cowcod Conservation Area (CCA) closes a significant amount of the Conception Area to fishing and the areaswept biomass estimates for the Conception area are based on the assumption that catch rates outside of the CCAs are comparable to those inside (the survey does not sample within the CCAs). A precautionary reduction of 50 percent was used in the southern area to account for the uncertainty inherent in using a short timeseries of relative abundance for setting the OY. The apportionment of biomass using the trawl survey data (Alternatives 2 and 3) incorporates the best available information on the sablefish stock distribution.
Shortbelly Rockfish
In 2007 an academic assessment conducted for shortbelly rockfish indicated the shortbelly stock was healthy and estimated the spawning stock biomass to be at 67 percent of its unfished spawning biomass in 2006. Based on the advice of the SSC, the Council used the academic assessment to develop two alternative approaches for establishing OYs for shortbelly rockfish. Under the first approach (Alternative 1) the status quo OY was reduced to 25 percent resulting in an OY of 3,475 mt in 2009 and 2010. The shortbelly rockfish stock would be expected to increase in abundance under the Alternative 1 harvest rate. Under the second approach (Alternative 2), the status quo OY was reduced to 50 percent resulting in an OY of 6,950 mt in 2009 and 2010. The stock would be expected to remain in its current equilibrium under the Alternative 2 harvest rate. The Council recommended adoption of Alternative 2.
Chilipepper Rockfish
The latest chilipepper stock assessment was prepared in 2007 and
indicated that the stock was healthy. At its April 2008 meeting the
Council considered 3 alternative approaches to setting OYs for
chilipepper rockfish. Under the first approach (Alternative 1) the OY
of 2,000 mt in 2009 and 2010, is less than the ABC and is a
precautionary OY intended to reduce the potential catch of bocaccio
which cooccur with chilipepper rockfish. The second alternative,
Alternative 2 had OYs (2,099 mt in 2009 and 2010) based on the
estimated MSY at an F
Black Rockfish South of 42[deg] N. lat.
A new stock assessment for Black rockfish south of Cape Falcon (46[deg]16' N. lat.), estimated the stock to be at 70 percent of its unfished spawning biomass in 2007. At its April 2008 meeting, the Council considered three alternative OYs for the area south of 42[deg] N. lat. Alternative 1 was the sum of the OY set equal to the ABC as derived from the 2007 low productivity stock assessment model, and three percent of the yield from the northern area stock assessment base model where the OY was set equal to the ABC. The resulting OYs were 920 mt in 2009 and 831 mt in 2010. Alternative 2 was based on a constant catch scenario using 1,000 mt for the southern area. OY Alternative 3 was based on the sum of the OY set equal to the ABC for that portion of the stock south of 46[deg]16' N. lat. as derived from the 2007 medium productivity stock assessment model and three percent of the yield from the northern area stock assessment base model where the OY was set equal to the ABC. The resulting OYs were 1,469 mt in 2009 and 1,317 mt in 2010.
The Council recommended the OY Alternative 2. Uncertainties in the 2007 southern black rockfish assessment, implications for management, and comments from the SSC indicating that the decision table, coupled with the probabilities assigned to the various states of nature, provides a large contrast in possible outcomes, which implies a highly uncertain assessment (relative to other rockfish assessments). If productivity is actually low, the stock biomass under Alternative 2 is projected to be at 34.7 percent of its unfished spawning biomass in 2016 and not as close to the overfished level as Alternative 3, which projects the spawning biomass to be at 29 percent of its unfished spawning biomass in 2016.
California Scorpionfish
A 2005 stock assessment on California scorpionfish indicated the stock was healthy, with an estimated spawning stock biomass of 79.8 percent of its unfished spawning biomass in 2005. The California scorpionfish assessment used a recreational catch data stream based upon Commercial Passenger Fishing Vessel (CPFV) logbook data expanded to total recreational catch using a proportion of CPFV to total recreational catch (based upon Marine Recreational Fisheries Statistics Survey catch history). The Council's SSC approved this assessment, with the caveat that the ABC/OY from this assessment could only be related to recreational catch calculated in the same manner as this catch stream. Consequently, an alternative ABC/OY was generated by modifying the original ABC/OY from the assessment so that it could be compared and tracked using California Recreational Fisheries Survey (CRFS) catch estimates.
Because the stock is above B
[[Page 80525]]
results of the 2005 stock assessment as modified to incorporate CRFS
estimates. Alternative 2 (175 mt in 2009 and 155 mt in 2010) was a
value that was intermediate to the 20072008 OY of 137 mt from the
20072008 OY from the base model with the CPFV modification, and the
20072008 OY of 219 mt from the base model without the CPFV
modification. The Council recommended the higher Alternative 2
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT
Gretchen Arentzen (Northwest Region, NMFS), phone: 2065266147, fax: 2065266736 and email
gretchen.arentzen@noaa.gov.